IDC's Top 10 Predictions for 2010

Yes, it's that time of year again. Prognostications and predictions from "experts" all over the world and, my guess, most of them will be saying how next year will be better than this. Er, I guess that's also a prediction! One thing I think will be true - a burst of tech IPO's in the first few months of 2010 unless the markets tank big time. A post coming up on that.

I was able to get a copy of IDC's predictions for technology in 2010 today and I'll reproduce their summary (in italics) below. High level, very general. But sets the tone for a more positive and highly interesting year, I think. All of them augur well for Silicon Valley, one way or another.

"2010 will be a year of modest recovery for the IT and telecommunications industries. But the recovery will not mean a return to the pre-recession status quo. Rather, we'll see a radically transforming marketplace — driven by surging demand in emerging markets, growing impact from the cloud services model, an explosion of mobile devices and applications, and the continuing rollout of higher-speed networks. These transformational forces will drive key players to redefine themselves and their
offerings and will spark lots of M&A activity.

1. Growth will return to the IT industry in 2010. We predict 3.2% growth for the year, returning the industry to 2008 spending levels of about $1.5 trillion.
2. 2010 will also see improved growth and stability in the worldwide telecommunications market, with worldwide spending predicted to increase 3%.
   
3. Emerging markets will lead the IT recovery, with BRIC countries growing 8–13%.
4. Cloud computing will expand and mature as we see a strategic battle for cloud platform leadership, new public cloud hot spots, private cloud offerings, cloud appliances, and offerings that bridge public and private clouds.
5. It will be a watershed year in the ascension of mobile devices as strategic platforms for commercial and enterprise developers as over 1 billion access the Internet, iPhone apps triple, Android apps quintuple, and Apple's "iPad" arrives.
6. Public networks — more important than ever — will continue their aggressive evolution to fiber and 3G and 4G wireless. 4G will be overhyped, more wireless networks will become "invisible," and the FCC will regulate over-the-top VoIP.
   
7. Business applications will undergo a fundamental transformation — fusing business applications with social/collaboration software and analytics into a new generation of "socialytic" apps, challenging current market leaders.
8. Rising energy costs and pressure from the Copenhagen Climate Change Conference will make sustainability a source of renewed opportunity for the IT industry in 2010. 
9. Other industries will come out of the recession with a transformation agenda and look to IT as an increasingly important lever for these initiatives. Smart meters and electronic medical records will hit important adoption levels.
10. The IT industry's transformations will drive a frenetic pace of M&A activity."

For a full copy of the report you can register with IDC and download here